HRC researches the utility of forecasts for agriculture and water resources. Large-scale hydrologic-hydraulic prediction models with forecast uncertainty provide input to decision support systems developed by HRC and its collaborators. Decision support systems balance multi-objective trade-offs associated with management of each reservoir and for the entire system pertaining to inter-annual, seasonal, and operational time scales. Reservoir managers face such competing objectives as low-flow requirements for downstream uses as required by law, maximizing of power generation, limiting spillage, maintaining strict safety standards to prevent flooding, and maximizing late-season water supplies. HRC develops probabilistic measures to assess potential for benefits and provides guidance to reservoir managers, quantitatively evaluates benefits and risks associated with various operation scenarios, and studies the sensitivity of flow forecasts and reservoir management to climatic variability over scales ranging from daily to interdecadal. Utility of climate and hydrologic forecasts and their uncertainty is explored through near real-time tests of the integrated system with actual data and management input by comparing its economic and other benefits to those accruing from current management practices for the same hydrologic events. The utility of operational quality soil moisture estimates from distributed models is also examined in the context of large-scale agriculture.
Selected Articles and Publications can be seen on the PUBLICATIONS page.