A Forward-looking Snowmelt and Flood Hazard Assessment for Tajikistan for the 2017 High Risk Season

Location: Tajikistan
Sponsors: World Bank
Collaborators: Tajikistan Hydrometeorological Department

The overall objective of the project was to perform probabilistic flash flood and flood occurrence assessments for the watersheds of the territory of Tajikistan covered by the Central Asia Region Flash Flood Guidance (CARFFG) system through the high risk period of 2017. This period extends from March/April to August 2017 .  The methodology consists of using (a) component models of the CARFFG system, in conjunction with (b) ensemble predictions of precipitation and temperature from the Climate Forecast System (CFS) and with (c) probabilistic downscaling methodologies, to produce ensemble forecasts of snowmelt runoff and of the potential for flash flood and flood occurrence in the watersheds of the CARFFG system. The results were summarized for every month of the high risk period to indicate the watersheds and the projected weeks with the highest likelihood of hazard occurrence. HRC collaborated with the appropriate Tajikistan authorities to receive  available data from the country and to provide information of the development in a technology transfer effort to provide usable information for disaster management decision making.  Three additional  update assessments were performed nominally 2-4 weeks, 4-6 weeks, and 6-8 weeks after the completion of the initial assessment.