A new paper authored by HRC in collaboration with a group from the University of Arizona was recently published in Hydrology. The study examined the projected annual and monthly changes in potential evapotranspiration (PET) throughout the Southwest U.S. and Mexico under climatic changes.
We concluded that the projected areal average annual PET is expected to increase by 4% for 2020–2039 over the average for the period 1986-2005, and similarly by 7% for 2040–2059. In general, higher values of annual changes were found for the northeast part of the region, while smaller changes are projected for areas along the Pacific coast.
Despite differences in magnitude, the projected annual PET increases can be seen across the entire region and for the six different climate models analyzed.
Projected 20-year average of the annual Potential Evapotranspiration changes for
(a) early and (b) mid 21st century (2020–2039 and 2040–2059, respectively).
Shamir, E.; Mendoza Fierro, L.; Mohsenzadeh Karimi, S.; Pelak, N.; Tarouilly, E.; Chang, H.-I.; Castro, C.L. Climate Change Projections of Potential Evapotranspiration for the North American Monsoon Region. Hydrology 2024, 11, 83. https:// doi.org/10.3390/hydrology11060083